Verizon’s marketing campaign for Motorola Droid puts iPhone squarely in it’s cross hairs with their list of “iDon’ts”:
iDon’t have a real keyboard.
iDon’t run simultaneous apps.
iDon’t take night shots.
iDon’t allow open development.
iDon’t Customize.
iDon’t Run Widgets.
iDon’t have interchangeable batteries.
DROID DOES
via Boy Genius Report.
I was explaining this method for estimating odds to someone the other day, and thought it would be a great idea to write a short blog post explaining it to everyone.
The rule of four and two (also called ‘Solomon’s Rule’) is a very simple method for estimating odds in your head. It’s especially useful for those who have a difficult time doing long division without a piece of paper or calculator.
To estimate the odds that you will hit a given hand after the flop, just count up the number of outs, multiply that number by 4 and the result is the approximate percentage chance that you will hit your hand on the turn or the river. If none of your outs come on the turn, just multiply the number of outs by 2 to get the odds you’ll hit on the river.
Here’s an example:
You’ve got the ace and queen of hearts in your hand, the flop comes out six of hearts, ten of hearts and 3 of clubs, giving you four cards to a heart flush. That means there are nine more hearts out there that will make your hand. So to estimate the odds that you will hit your hand on the turn or the river just multiply 9×4 giving you a 36% chance that you’ll make your hand. The actual odds that you’ll make your hand are 34.9%, so the answer is close enough and MUCH easier to calculate.
If that heart doesn’t come on the turn, simply multiply the number of outs by two (9×2=18) to estimate the odds that you will make your hand on the river. The actual odds are 19.5%, again close enough. Calculating accurate odds on the river is much simpler, but this method is still easier.
There is one exception to this rule, if you have more than 9 outs, you must make the following adjustment when estimating odds after the flop. Multiply the number of outs by 4, then subtract 8 from the number of outs and subtract the result from your estimate.
If you had 12 outs, you would multiply 12×4=48, subtract 8 from 12 giving you 4, then subtract 4 from 48, so your approximate odds would be 44%. The actual odds are 44.9%.
Incidentally, the formulas for caculating actual odds are as follows:
After the flop:
((outs/47) + (outs/46) – (outs/47) x (outs/46))x100 = Odds you’ll make your hand on the turn or river.
i.e. 9 outs to make your flush:
(9/47) + (9/46) – (9/47) x (9/46)
(19.14 + 19.56) – (19.14 x 19.56)
.387 – .0374 = .3496
.3496 x 100 = 34.96%
(47 is the number of unknown cards after the flop (The 5 known cards being the two in your hand and the three on the board) and 46 is the number of unknown cards after the turn.)
After the turn:
(outs/46)x100
9/46=.195
.195 x 100 = 19.5%
(I’m no mathematician, and I usually do these calculations in my head, so my notation may not be 100% accurate.)
When Kim Cascone’s PowerBook G4 started becoming unreliable, he calculated the cost of a new PowerMac and production software and when the total came out to $3000, he decided to give Ubuntu a try. After a $600 investment in a new Dell laptop and donation to developers, he’s got no regrets about choosing Open Source software.
I had tried Linux in 2005 on PowerPC-based Mac laptops, though at the time I couldn’t get audio working, even after extensive tweaking. But I had kept an eye on Ubuntu ever since. After considering MacBook Pro prices, I checked out the new netbooks coming to market and picked up a refurbished Dell Inspiron Mini 9 with Ubuntu pre-installed.
I loaded up my Dell with all a selection of Linux audio applications and brought it with me on tour as an emergency backup to my tottering PowerBook. The Mini 9 could play back four tracks of 24-bit/96 kHz audio with effects – not bad for a netbook. The solution to my financial constraint became clear, and I bought a refurbished Dell Studio 15, installed Ubuntu on it, and set it up for sound production and business administration. The total cost was around $600 for the laptop plus a donation to a software developer — a far cry from the $3000.00 price tag and weeks of my time it would have cost me to stay locked-in to Apple. After a couple of months of solid use, I have had no problems with my laptop or Ubuntu. Both have performed flawlessly, remaining stable and reliable.
The Smoke in this Flash ad on the Subway website spells out the word SEX!.
From badbadteacher.com.
Allen James Cole, 34, a government teacher at Travis High School in Austin, Texas has been arrested on allegations that he had sex with an 18-year-old female student more than 20 times in five days.
No wonder he looks so smug in his mugshot:
"Yep, that says MORE than TWENTY times in five days."
That was more or less normal in the seventies.
It took more than 7-months for KIRO 7 Consumer Investigator Amy Clancy to get her hands on documents concerning Apple’s iPods from the Consumer Product Safety Commission because Apple’s lawyers filed exemption after exemption. In the end, the CPSC released more than 800 pages which reveal, for the very first time, a comprehensive look that shows, on a number of occasions, iPods have suddenly burst into flames, started to smoke, and even burned their owners.
via Apple Downplays Fiery iPod Incidents – Money News Story – KIRO Seattle.
There is not much to do, the batteries are fucked up
Phone rage leads to arrest here for Ohio man
An Ohio man, fed up with deceptive junk mail, made the mistake of losing his temper while on the phone with a St. Louis company pitching an extended auto-service contract. Now he finds himself behind bars, where he is charged with making a terrorist threat.
According to court documents, Charles W. Papenfus, 43, allegedly told a sales representative during a May 18 telephone call that he would burn down the building and kill the employees and their families. He was indicted for making a terrorist threat, a Class D felony; and he could be sentenced to up to four years in prison if convicted.
Ethan Nadelmann Speaks at the NAACP Conference
Great fire and brimstone drug policy speech!
I have a relative who got the Swine Flu in Mexico. It is a good thing that he already recovered from this disease.
Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn warns Congress investors may be worried that the Fed is monetizing US debt. (Monetization is the Federal Reserve paying off debts by printing money.)
Rightfully so!
The Fed continuing to attempt to stabalize the economy by monetizing US debt will lead to hyperinflation.
Jenea 7:25 am on September 21, 2009 Permalink |
Its looks so cool!!!! I want to eat this too!!!